With all its refinements, modern seismology is not able to predict with absolute certainty the time and place of an earthquake. There are only probablities. But then, even after centuries, there is no generally accepted astrological method. If this were so, and if it were reliable then it would have been put to general practice long ago.
One problem is that astrology has been discredited. It is no longer considered a ‘serious’ science, and certainly anyone who wants to avoid the stigma of superstition avoids it. Astrology is no longer offered in the curriculum of renowned universities, where once it was considered respectable. And so it has been relegated to the private study and yes, also to the fairground both real and virtual. Because it has become a private interest it is more strongly influenced by whims and fashions, although even august scientific circles are not immune to this. This explains why there are so very many different schools, even within a particular tradition, and also explains why astrologers quite often are not in agreement as to which factors in reading a chart are relevant and critical.
There is also another danger when one enters into the realm of prediction, and that is that prediction is given an almost supernatural flavour when it is correct, or when it is wrong is immediately exposed to ridicule. Who wouldn’t want to be able to make clear and accurate predictions that may genuinely be of some help to other human beings? And who is immune to renown? Which scientist would reject the Nobel Prize? Or which astologer would reject the general acclaim of his or her peers or the general public? Very few. But if acclaim is a central motive then objectivity will soon be lost and the only important thing is that one once got a prediction right overlooking those that were wrong or never even made.
I think that when approaching earthquake prediction there should be a certain measure of humility. This means that one speaks of critical periods and critical regions because there is no absolute reliable method which can be applied to all instances (or at least not yet!). If you click on the link to “latest earthquakes” you will find that there are worldwide more than 10 earthquakes a day, many 5 or 6 on the Richter Scale. No one person has the time and resources to cover this much spatial and temporal territory! The first step, and there we must be thankful there is such a thing as scientific method, is to examine our premises and then to set up a working framework with which to examine seismic phenomena from an astrological standpoint (any seismologist who reads this would probably roll his eyes at the mention of astrology, but then again he might also be asked to examine his premises).
In the past articles on the theme of earthquakes I have asked the following:
- Does a perigee Moon have an influence on seismic activity?
- What influence does Mercury, the traditional earthquake planet have?
- Can Mercury along with Mars and Saturn be used alone or should the modern ‘outer’ planets be included?
- Do the outer planets have an influence? And if so, what.
- How effective are the various mundane charts that belong to the traditional astrological repetoire? Are they all effective or are some more effective than others and which ones can be ignored?
- How long does it take for a celestial event to take effect? Is it immediate? For example when a Full Moon is perfected, or are there other factors that delay?
- How exact must a conjunction to the IC/MC axis be
- What effect do the Nodes of the Moon have?
- When can a technique or combination of techniques be considered consistently reliable?
This is my present working framework. It may have to be corrected, in fact it is more than likely it has to be corrected!
I would like to demonstrate some of these considerations based on three charts for another region that is more or less on the same meridian as Manila and where close to the last perigee Moon almost Full Moon (November 2008) an earthquake of the magnitude of 7.3 occured. So we have a Mars/Saturn Conjunction chart that is more or less similar to that of Manila, in that the Moon’s Nodes are on the IC/MC axis and the Mars/Saturn conjunction is in the 4th house. On the pre-quake Full Moon you will note that the IC/MC axis is at 29 Gemini/29 Sagittarius the postion of Mercury in the Mars/Saturn Conjunction. The earthquake itself occured 3 days later Mercury was at the midpoint between the Nodes (19 Scorpio) and IC/MC axis of the Mars/Saturn conjunction chart. Is this what gave the earthquake its timing? Here are the charts: