Earthquake and Prediction: How do they Fit Together?

With all its refinements, modern seismology is not able to predict with absolute certainty the time and place of an earthquake. There are only probablities. But then, even after centuries, there is no generally accepted astrological method. If this were so, and if it were reliable then it would have been put to general practice long ago.

One problem is that astrology has been discredited. It is no longer considered a ‘serious’ science, and certainly anyone who wants to avoid the stigma of superstition avoids it. Astrology is no longer offered in the curriculum of renowned universities, where once it was considered respectable. And so it has been relegated to the private study and yes, also to the fairground both real and virtual. Because it has become a private interest it is more strongly influenced by whims and fashions, although even august scientific circles are not immune to this. This explains why there are so very many different schools, even within a particular tradition, and also explains why astrologers quite often are not in agreement as to which factors in reading a chart are relevant and critical.

There is also another danger when one enters into the realm of prediction, and that is that prediction is given an almost supernatural flavour when it is correct, or when it is wrong is immediately exposed to ridicule. Who wouldn’t want to be able to make clear and accurate predictions that may genuinely be of some help to other human beings? And who is immune to renown? Which scientist would reject the Nobel Prize? Or which astologer would reject the general acclaim of his or her peers or the general public? Very few. But if acclaim is a central motive then objectivity will soon be lost and the only important thing is that one once got a prediction right overlooking those that were wrong or never even made.

I think that when approaching earthquake prediction there should be a certain measure of humility. This means that one speaks of critical periods and critical regions because there is no absolute reliable method which can be applied to all instances (or at least not yet!). If you click on the link to “latest earthquakes” you will find that there are worldwide more than 10 earthquakes a day, many 5 or 6 on the Richter Scale. No one person has the time and resources to cover this much spatial and temporal territory! The first step, and there we must be thankful there is such a thing as scientific method, is to examine our premises and then to set up a working framework with which to examine seismic phenomena from an astrological standpoint (any seismologist who reads this would probably roll his eyes at the mention of astrology, but then again he might also be asked to examine his premises).

In the past articles on the theme of earthquakes I have asked the following:

  • Does a perigee Moon have an influence on seismic activity?
  • What influence does Mercury, the traditional earthquake planet have?
  • Can Mercury along with Mars and Saturn be used alone or should the modern ‘outer’ planets be included?
  • Do the outer planets have an influence? And if so, what.
  • How effective are the various mundane charts that belong to the traditional astrological repetoire? Are they all effective or are some more effective than others and which ones can be ignored?
  • How long does it take for a celestial event to take effect? Is it immediate? For example when a Full Moon is perfected, or are there other factors that delay?
  • How exact must a conjunction to the IC/MC axis be
  • What effect do the Nodes of the Moon have?
  • When can a technique or combination of techniques be considered consistently reliable?

This is my present working framework. It may have to be corrected, in fact it is more than likely it has to be corrected!

I would like to demonstrate some of these considerations based on three charts for another region that is more or less on the same meridian as Manila and where close to the last perigee Moon almost Full Moon (November 2008) an earthquake of the magnitude of 7.3 occured. So we have a Mars/Saturn Conjunction chart that is more or less similar to that of Manila, in that the Moon’s Nodes are on the IC/MC axis and the Mars/Saturn conjunction is in the 4th house. On the pre-quake Full Moon you will note that the IC/MC axis is at 29 Gemini/29 Sagittarius the postion of Mercury in the Mars/Saturn Conjunction. The earthquake itself occured 3 days later Mercury was at the midpoint between the Nodes (19 Scorpio) and IC/MC axis of the Mars/Saturn conjunction chart. Is this what gave the earthquake its timing? Here are the charts:

03 pm GMT

Mars/Saturn Conjunction near Palehleh, Indonesia: 10 July, 2008 6:03 pm GMT

16 am GMT

near Paleleh, Indonesia: Full Moon, Nov 13, 2008 6:16 am GMT

02 pm GMT

Earthquake near Paleleh, Indonesia (122e09, 1n27) 16 Nov, 2008 5:44:02 pm GMT

Advertisements

6 thoughts on “Earthquake and Prediction: How do they Fit Together?

  1. I think we are victims of double standard.People don´t consider astrology a “science” (thank god!) but when they expect a prediction they want it to be with striking precision, exactitude and with no margin of error.

    Well, but they don´t expect this kind of precision from their doctors, financial advisers, economists, lawyers or psychologists! “I will pay my lawyer only if we win the case”. It simply doesn´t work this way !

    Meteorologists do “predictions” of the weather next week, but if you follow them, you see that they are mostly guesswork.

    Economists can go to the television to say the most obvious things, in general after the fact, and without any prediction of when things will get better or worse. And they think of themselves as the “hard” social science.

    So, simply don´t worry about it. Do it for fun. I am glad that astrology will never be a mainstream knoledge ! Because I think it work, and it is too much power to be handled.

  2. Hello Yuzuru!

    Yes, I think you are right, there does seem to be a double set of standards. And yes, there is no need to worry about it. 🙂 But I do know of scientists who set a very high standard for their work and will certainly, for my own satisfaction try to reach as high a standard that is possible for me.

    best regards,
    Thomas

  3. Hello Amit,

    Have looked into your weblog. It would interest me if your prediction technique shows any critical activity on or around the 120th eastern meridian, on which Manila also is, for the next few days?

    best regards,
    Thomas

  4. The plate tectonic NOT makes the earthquakes.
    The moon makes the earthquakes as raising the earth crust.
    See more than 800 world earthquake predictions who happened.
    There will be an strong earthquake in Costa Rica on the 28th of March 2009.
    YouTube: BOYKOILIEV2008

  5. Hello Boyko,
    There is evidence that a perigee Moon does play a role. But don’t you think that there might be an interrelation between Moon and tectonic plates?
    Well there has been plenty of activity in the region if you look at the daily Earthquake list (see the ‘useful’ link). Costa Rica had two within half an hour of each other. 4.9 and 5.3 and with the Moon in perigee on April 2nd, there could very well be a strong earthquake beforehand.

    best regards,
    Thomas

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s